Spartak Varna vs Arda Kardzhali — Bulgarian First League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Spartak Varna
vs
12:00
Arda Kardzhali
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Spartak Varna
23%
Draw
30%
Arda Kardzhali
47%
Expected goals
1.00–1.45
Spartak Varna · Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.1%), 0–1 (12.3%), 1–2 (10.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Arda Kardzhali win is 0–1 (12.3%).
Spartak Varna score at least twice in 26%; Arda Kardzhali in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
Arda Kardzhali goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 9.0 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 14.1 | 10.0 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Spartak Varna goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 29% | 41% |
| Market reference | 23% | 30% | 47% |
| Metis Forecast | 23% | 30% | 47% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Spartak Varna
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lokomotiv Sofia | 0–1 | L |
Arda Kardzhali
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cherno More Varna | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.