Spartak Varna vs Arda — Bulgarian First League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Spartak Varna
vs
12:00
Arda
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Spartak Varna
23%
Draw
30%
Arda
47%
Expected goals
1.03–1.39
Spartak Varna · Arda
Arda win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.1%), 0–1 (13.6%), 1–2 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Arda win is 0–1 (13.6%).
Spartak Varna score at least twice in 27%; Arda in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Arda goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 13.6 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 14.1 | 11.3 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Spartak Varna goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 29% | 30% |
| Market reference | 23% | 30% | 47% |
| Metis Forecast | 23% | 30% | 47% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Spartak Varna
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lokomotiv Sofia | 0–1 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.