Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More Varna — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Slavia Sofia
vs
14:00
Cherno More Varna
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Slavia Sofia
34%
Draw
32%
Cherno More Varna
34%
Expected goals
1.18–1.13
Slavia Sofia · Cherno More Varna
Cherno More Varna win 34% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (15.1%), 0–0 (11.5%), 0–1 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Slavia Sofia score at least twice in 33%; Cherno More Varna in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Cherno More Varna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 10.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 15.1 | 8.0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Slavia Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 30% | 29% |
| Market reference | 34% | 32% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 34% | 32% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Slavia Sofia
| 18 Sept | H | vs CSKA 1948 | 1–2 | L |
Cherno More Varna
| 19 Sept | A | vs Arda Kardzhali | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.