Slavia Sofia vs Cherno More — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Slavia Sofia
vs
14:00
Cherno More
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Slavia Sofia
36%
Draw
32%
Cherno More
32%
Expected goals
1.22–1.12
Slavia Sofia · Cherno More
Slavia Sofia win 36% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.9%), 0–0 (11.1%), 1–0 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 49% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Slavia Sofia score at least twice in 34%; Cherno More in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Cherno More goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 14.9 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Slavia Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Market reference | 36% | 32% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 32% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Slavia Sofia
| 18 Sept | H | vs CSKA 1948 | 1–2 | L |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.