Slavia Sofia vs Arda Kardzhali — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 21 November 2026
Slavia Sofia
vs
12:45
Arda Kardzhali
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Slavia Sofia
26%
Draw
30%
Arda Kardzhali
44%
Expected goals
1.00–1.35
Slavia Sofia · Arda Kardzhali
Arda Kardzhali win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.2%), 0–1 (12.0%), 0–0 (10.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Arda Kardzhali win is 0–1 (12.0%).
Slavia Sofia score at least twice in 26%; Arda Kardzhali in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Arda Kardzhali goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 14.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Slavia Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 28% | 30% | 42% |
| Market reference | 26% | 30% | 44% |
| Metis Forecast | 26% | 30% | 44% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Slavia Sofia
| 18 Sept | H | vs CSKA 1948 | 1–2 | L |
Arda Kardzhali
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cherno More Varna | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.