Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Septemvri Sofia
vs
15:00
Lokomotiv Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Septemvri Sofia
30%
Draw
28%
Lokomotiv Sofia
42%
Expected goals
1.15–1.33
Septemvri Sofia · Lokomotiv Sofia
Lokomotiv Sofia win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.5%), 0–1 (11.1%), 1–2 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Septemvri Sofia score at least twice in 32%; Lokomotiv Sofia in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Lokomotiv Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 11.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 13.5 | 9.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Septemvri Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market reference | 30% | 28% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 30% | 28% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Septemvri Sofia
| 19 Sept | H | vs Botev Plovdiv | 0–3 | L |
Lokomotiv Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Spartak Varna | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.