Septemvri Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Bulgarian First League forecast, Friday, 20 November 2026
Septemvri Sofia
vs
16:00
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Septemvri Sofia
38%
Draw
30%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
32%
Expected goals
1.13–1.07
Septemvri Sofia · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Septemvri Sofia win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.0%), 1–0 (12.8%), 0–0 (11.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Septemvri Sofia score at least twice in 32%; Lokomotiv Plovdiv in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.9 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 14.0 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Septemvri Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 31% | 39% |
| Market reference | 38% | 30% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 38% | 30% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Septemvri Sofia
| 19 Sept | H | vs Botev Plovdiv | 0–3 | L |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
| 20 Sept | H | vs CSKA Sofia | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.