Septemvri Sofia vs Dunav Ruse — Bulgarian First League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Septemvri Sofia
vs
12:00
Dunav Ruse
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Septemvri Sofia
41%
Draw
31%
Dunav Ruse
28%
Expected goals
1.40–1.11
Septemvri Sofia · Dunav Ruse
Septemvri Sofia win 41% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.7%), 1–0 (9.8%), 0–0 (9.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Septemvri Sofia score at least twice in 41%; Dunav Ruse in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Dunav Ruse goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 14.7 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Septemvri Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 28% | 27% |
| Market reference | 41% | 31% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 41% | 31% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.37–1.13 → 1.40–1.11
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Septemvri Sofia
| 19 Sept | H | vs Botev Plovdiv | 0–3 | L |
Dunav Ruse
| 19 Sept | H | vs Botev Vratsa | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.