Ludogorets Razgrad vs Arda — Bulgarian First League forecast, Monday, 12 October 2026
Ludogorets Razgrad
vs
17:00
Arda
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Ludogorets Razgrad
60%
Draw
24%
Arda
15%
Expected goals
1.62–0.82
Ludogorets Razgrad · Arda
Ludogorets Razgrad win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16.2%), 2–1 (12.4%), 2–0 (11.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 40% of outcomes; the other 60% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Ludogorets Razgrad score at least twice in 50%; Arda in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Arda goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.2 | 11.6 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.7 | 12.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Ludogorets Razgrad goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 30% | 29% |
| Market reference | 60% | 24% | 15% |
| Metis Forecast | 60% | 24% | 15% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.56–0.86 → 1.62–0.82
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.