Lokomotiv Sofia vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
14:30
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lokomotiv Sofia
50%
Draw
27%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
22%
Expected goals
1.38–0.94
Lokomotiv Sofia · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Lokomotiv Sofia win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15.3%), 1–1 (12.9%), 2–1 (11.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lokomotiv Sofia score at least twice in 41%; Lokomotiv Plovdiv in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.9 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lokomotiv Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 31% | 36% |
| Market reference | 50% | 27% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 27% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Lokomotiv Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Spartak Varna | 1–0 | W |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
| 20 Sept | H | vs CSKA Sofia | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.