Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Vratsa — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
13:30
Botev Vratsa
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lokomotiv Sofia
52%
Draw
25%
Botev Vratsa
23%
Expected goals
1.50–0.99
Lokomotiv Sofia · Botev Vratsa
Lokomotiv Sofia win 52% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.5%), 1–1 (11.9%), 2–1 (11.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lokomotiv Sofia score at least twice in 45%; Botev Vratsa in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Botev Vratsa goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 11.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lokomotiv Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 29% | 31% |
| Market reference | 52% | 25% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 52% | 25% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Lokomotiv Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Spartak Varna | 1–0 | W |
Botev Vratsa
| 19 Sept | A | vs Dunav Ruse | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.