Lokomotiv Sofia vs Botev Plovdiv — Bulgarian First League forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Lokomotiv Sofia
vs
17:30
Botev Plovdiv
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lokomotiv Sofia
36%
Draw
28%
Botev Plovdiv
37%
Expected goals
1.26–1.37
Lokomotiv Sofia · Botev Plovdiv
Botev Plovdiv win 37% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–0 (9.3%), 2–1 (9.0%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lokomotiv Sofia score at least twice in 37%; Botev Plovdiv in 39%.
Scoreline distribution
Botev Plovdiv goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 13.2 | 7.4 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 9.0 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lokomotiv Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 27% | 27% | 46% |
| Market reference | 36% | 28% | 37% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 28% | 37% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.21–1.37 → 1.26–1.37
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Lokomotiv Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Spartak Varna | 1–0 | W |
Botev Plovdiv
| 19 Sept | A | vs Septemvri Sofia | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.