Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
15:00
Slavia Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
44%
Draw
30%
Slavia Sofia
27%
Expected goals
1.28–0.92
Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Slavia Sofia
Lokomotiv Plovdiv win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.6%), 1–0 (13.1%), 0–0 (11.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 44% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Lokomotiv Plovdiv win is 1–0 (13.1%).
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score at least twice in 36%; Slavia Sofia in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Slavia Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 13.6 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 30% | 24% |
| Market reference | 44% | 30% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 30% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
| 20 Sept | H | vs CSKA Sofia | 1–1 | D |
Slavia Sofia
| 18 Sept | H | vs CSKA 1948 | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.