Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs Ludogorets Razgrad — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
vs
12:00
Ludogorets Razgrad
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
10%
Draw
22%
Ludogorets Razgrad
68%
Expected goals
0.72–1.58
Lokomotiv Plovdiv · Ludogorets Razgrad
Ludogorets Razgrad win 68% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (22.5%), 1–2 (15.7%), 0–2 (12.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 45% of simulations.
Those three cover 51% of outcomes; the other 49% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score at least twice in 15%; Ludogorets Razgrad in 49%.
Scoreline distribution
Ludogorets Razgrad goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 22.5 | 12.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 2.9 | 10.4 | 15.7 | 5.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 41% | 31% | 29% |
| Market reference | 10% | 22% | 68% |
| Metis Forecast | 10% | 22% | 68% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Lokomotiv Plovdiv
| 20 Sept | H | vs CSKA Sofia | 1–1 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.