Levski Sofia vs Lokomotiv Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Sunday, 22 November 2026
Levski Sofia
vs
13:30
Lokomotiv Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Levski Sofia
77%
Draw
16%
Lokomotiv Sofia
8%
Expected goals
2.40–0.68
Levski Sofia · Lokomotiv Sofia
Levski Sofia win 77% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (13.7%), 1–0 (11.1%), 3–0 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Levski Sofia score at least twice in 70%; Lokomotiv Sofia in 15%.
Scoreline distribution
Lokomotiv Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.8 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 10.6 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Levski Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 74% | 18% | 8% |
| Market reference | 77% | 16% | 8% |
| Metis Forecast | 77% | 16% | 8% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
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Lokomotiv Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Spartak Varna | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.