Levski Sofia vs CSKA Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Levski Sofia
vs
15:00
CSKA Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Levski Sofia
43%
Draw
30%
CSKA Sofia
27%
Expected goals
1.46–1.05
Levski Sofia · CSKA Sofia
Levski Sofia win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.4%), 0–0 (9.7%), 1–0 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Levski Sofia win is 1–0 (9.6%).
Levski Sofia score at least twice in 42%; CSKA Sofia in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
CSKA Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 14.4 | 7.0 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Levski Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 52% | 27% | 21% |
| Market reference | 43% | 30% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 30% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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CSKA Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.