Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Dunav Ruse
vs
11:00
Spartak Varna
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Dunav Ruse
39%
Draw
30%
Spartak Varna
31%
Expected goals
1.34–1.20
Dunav Ruse · Spartak Varna
Dunav Ruse win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (14.5%), 1–0 (9.6%), 0–0 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Dunav Ruse score at least twice in 39%; Spartak Varna in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Spartak Varna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 14.5 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Dunav Ruse goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Market reference | 39% | 30% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 30% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Dunav Ruse
| 19 Sept | H | vs Botev Vratsa | 2–2 | D |
Spartak Varna
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lokomotiv Sofia | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.