CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
CSKA Sofia
vs
17:30
Slavia Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
CSKA Sofia
80%
Draw
14%
Slavia Sofia
7%
Expected goals
2.27–0.58
CSKA Sofia · Slavia Sofia
CSKA Sofia win 80% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (15.9%), 1–0 (14.4%), 3–0 (11.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 41% of simulations.
Those three cover 41% of outcomes; the other 59% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
CSKA Sofia score at least twice in 68%; Slavia Sofia in 11%.
Scoreline distribution
Slavia Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 6.5 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 15.9 | 10.4 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 11.1 | 7.3 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 3.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CSKA Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 70% | 20% | 10% |
| Market reference | 80% | 14% | 7% |
| Metis Forecast | 80% | 14% | 7% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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CSKA Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–1 | D |
Slavia Sofia
| 18 Sept | H | vs CSKA 1948 | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.