CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets Razgrad — Bulgarian First League forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
CSKA Sofia
vs
17:30
Ludogorets Razgrad
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
CSKA Sofia
39%
Draw
29%
Ludogorets Razgrad
32%
Expected goals
1.50–1.15
CSKA Sofia · Ludogorets Razgrad
CSKA Sofia win 39% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 0–1 (9.3%), 1–2 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
CSKA Sofia score at least twice in 42%; Ludogorets Razgrad in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Ludogorets Razgrad goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CSKA Sofia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 62% | 23% | 14% |
| Market reference | 39% | 29% | 32% |
| Metis Forecast | 39% | 29% | 32% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
CSKA Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–1 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.