CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna — Bulgarian First League forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
CSKA 1948
vs
15:00
Spartak Varna
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
CSKA 1948
67%
Draw
20%
Spartak Varna
13%
Expected goals
1.99–0.77
CSKA 1948 · Spartak Varna
CSKA 1948 win 67% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (12.9%), 1–0 (12.6%), 2–1 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
CSKA 1948 score at least twice in 60%; Spartak Varna in 18%.
Scoreline distribution
Spartak Varna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 9.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CSKA 1948 goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 63% | 23% | 14% |
| Market reference | 67% | 20% | 13% |
| Metis Forecast | 67% | 20% | 13% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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CSKA 1948
| 18 Sept | A | vs Slavia Sofia | 2–1 | W |
Spartak Varna
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lokomotiv Sofia | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.