CSKA 1948 vs CSKA Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
CSKA 1948
vs
17:00
CSKA Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
CSKA 1948
21%
Draw
27%
CSKA Sofia
51%
Expected goals
0.92–1.43
CSKA 1948 · CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia win 51% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14.8%), 1–1 (12.9%), 1–2 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
CSKA 1948 score at least twice in 23%; CSKA Sofia in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
CSKA Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 14.8 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 12.9 | 10.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CSKA 1948 goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 30% | 38% |
| Market reference | 21% | 27% | 51% |
| Metis Forecast | 21% | 27% | 51% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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CSKA 1948
| 18 Sept | A | vs Slavia Sofia | 2–1 | W |
CSKA Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.