CSKA 1948 vs Botev Plovdiv — Bulgarian First League forecast, Friday, 23 October 2026
CSKA 1948
vs
16:00
Botev Plovdiv
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
CSKA 1948
46%
Draw
28%
Botev Plovdiv
26%
Expected goals
1.51–1.11
CSKA 1948 · Botev Plovdiv
CSKA 1948 win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.4%), 1–0 (10.5%), 2–1 (9.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely CSKA 1948 win is 1–0 (10.5%).
CSKA 1948 score at least twice in 45%; Botev Plovdiv in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Botev Plovdiv goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: CSKA 1948 goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 28% | 30% |
| Market reference | 46% | 28% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 28% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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CSKA 1948
| 18 Sept | A | vs Slavia Sofia | 2–1 | W |
Botev Plovdiv
| 19 Sept | A | vs Septemvri Sofia | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.