Cherno More vs Septemvri Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Cherno More
vs
15:00
Septemvri Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cherno More
58%
Draw
24%
Septemvri Sofia
19%
Expected goals
1.60–0.86
Cherno More · Septemvri Sofia
Cherno More win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14.9%), 2–0 (11.5%), 1–1 (11.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cherno More score at least twice in 48%; Septemvri Sofia in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Septemvri Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.5 | 11.1 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cherno More goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Market reference | 58% | 24% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 24% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
No recent results.
Septemvri Sofia
| 19 Sept | H | vs Botev Plovdiv | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.