Cherno More vs Levski Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Sunday, 11 October 2026
Cherno More
vs
14:30
Levski Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cherno More
17%
Draw
26%
Levski Sofia
57%
Expected goals
0.85–1.58
Cherno More · Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14.9%), 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Cherno More score at least twice in 21%; Levski Sofia in 48%.
Scoreline distribution
Levski Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 14.9 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.4 | 12.2 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cherno More goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 26% | 29% | 44% |
| Market reference | 17% | 26% | 57% |
| Metis Forecast | 17% | 26% | 57% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.