Cherno More vs Botev Vratsa — Bulgarian First League forecast, Monday, 2 November 2026
Cherno More
vs
15:00
Botev Vratsa
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Cherno More
49%
Draw
29%
Botev Vratsa
22%
Expected goals
1.49–0.98
Cherno More · Botev Vratsa
Cherno More win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (12.1%), 2–1 (9.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Cherno More win is 1–0 (12.1%).
Cherno More score at least twice in 44%; Botev Vratsa in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Botev Vratsa goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.8 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Cherno More goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 29% | 28% |
| Market reference | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 29% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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No recent results.
Botev Vratsa
| 19 Sept | A | vs Dunav Ruse | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.