Botev Vratsa vs Spartak Varna — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Botev Vratsa
vs
12:00
Spartak Varna
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Botev Vratsa
49%
Draw
29%
Spartak Varna
22%
Expected goals
1.38–0.86
Botev Vratsa · Spartak Varna
Botev Vratsa win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14.3%), 1–1 (13.6%), 0–0 (11.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 44% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Botev Vratsa score at least twice in 40%; Spartak Varna in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Spartak Varna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.6 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Botev Vratsa goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 45% | 30% | 25% |
| Market reference | 49% | 29% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 29% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Botev Vratsa
| 19 Sept | A | vs Dunav Ruse | 2–2 | D |
Spartak Varna
| 20 Sept | H | vs Lokomotiv Sofia | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.