Botev Vratsa vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Botev Vratsa
vs
11:30
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Botev Vratsa
47%
Draw
31%
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
22%
Expected goals
1.26–0.84
Botev Vratsa · Lokomotiv Plovdiv
Botev Vratsa win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16.1%), 1–1 (14.1%), 0–0 (13.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 43% of simulations.
Those three cover 43% of outcomes; the other 57% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Botev Vratsa score at least twice in 36%; Lokomotiv Plovdiv in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Lokomotiv Plovdiv goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.1 | 14.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Botev Vratsa goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 37% | 32% | 31% |
| Market reference | 47% | 31% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Botev Vratsa
| 19 Sept | A | vs Dunav Ruse | 2–2 | D |
Lokomotiv Plovdiv
| 20 Sept | H | vs CSKA Sofia | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.