Botev Vratsa vs CSKA 1948 — Bulgarian First League forecast, Sunday, 22 November 2026
Botev Vratsa
vs
11:00
CSKA 1948
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Botev Vratsa
24%
Draw
26%
CSKA 1948
50%
Expected goals
0.92–1.44
Botev Vratsa · CSKA 1948
CSKA 1948 win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13.7%), 1–1 (11.9%), 0–2 (10.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 46% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Botev Vratsa score at least twice in 23%; CSKA 1948 in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
CSKA 1948 goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 13.7 | 10.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Botev Vratsa goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 24% | 29% | 46% |
| Market reference | 24% | 26% | 50% |
| Metis Forecast | 24% | 26% | 50% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Botev Vratsa
| 19 Sept | A | vs Dunav Ruse | 2–2 | D |
CSKA 1948
| 18 Sept | A | vs Slavia Sofia | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.