Botev Plovdiv vs Slavia Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Saturday, 10 October 2026
Botev Plovdiv
vs
17:00
Slavia Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Botev Plovdiv
57%
Draw
26%
Slavia Sofia
17%
Expected goals
1.70–0.85
Botev Plovdiv · Slavia Sofia
Botev Plovdiv win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (12.5%), 1–1 (12.1%), 2–0 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Botev Plovdiv score at least twice in 51%; Slavia Sofia in 21%.
Scoreline distribution
Slavia Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 12.1 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Botev Plovdiv goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 56% | 26% | 18% |
| Market reference | 57% | 26% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 57% | 26% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Botev Plovdiv
| 19 Sept | A | vs Septemvri Sofia | 3–0 | W |
Slavia Sofia
| 18 Sept | H | vs CSKA 1948 | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.