Botev Plovdiv vs Dunav Ruse — Bulgarian First League forecast, Friday, 6 November 2026
Botev Plovdiv
vs
17:15
Dunav Ruse
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Botev Plovdiv
70%
Draw
19%
Dunav Ruse
11%
Expected goals
2.05–0.82
Botev Plovdiv · Dunav Ruse
Botev Plovdiv win 70% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13.0%), 2–0 (12.7%), 2–1 (12.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Botev Plovdiv score at least twice in 63%; Dunav Ruse in 19%.
Scoreline distribution
Dunav Ruse goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 9.0 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 12.7 | 12.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.6 | 7.4 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Botev Plovdiv goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 25% | 18% |
| Market reference | 70% | 19% | 11% |
| Metis Forecast | 70% | 19% | 11% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Botev Plovdiv
| 19 Sept | A | vs Septemvri Sofia | 3–0 | W |
Dunav Ruse
| 19 Sept | H | vs Botev Vratsa | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.