Botev Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Sunday, 22 November 2026
Botev Plovdiv
vs
16:00
CSKA Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Botev Plovdiv
18%
Draw
22%
CSKA Sofia
61%
Expected goals
0.91–1.67
Botev Plovdiv · CSKA Sofia
CSKA Sofia win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14.9%), 1–2 (12.7%), 0–2 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Botev Plovdiv score at least twice in 23%; CSKA Sofia in 52%.
Scoreline distribution
CSKA Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 15.0 | 11.3 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 10.3 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Botev Plovdiv goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 30% | 29% | 42% |
| Market reference | 18% | 22% | 61% |
| Metis Forecast | 18% | 22% | 61% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Botev Plovdiv
| 19 Sept | A | vs Septemvri Sofia | 3–0 | W |
CSKA Sofia
| 20 Sept | A | vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.