Arda vs Septemvri Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Monday, 2 November 2026
Arda
vs
17:30
Septemvri Sofia
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Arda
60%
Draw
23%
Septemvri Sofia
17%
Expected goals
1.63–0.83
Arda · Septemvri Sofia
Arda win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15.5%), 2–0 (11.9%), 2–1 (11.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 47% of simulations.
Those three cover 39% of outcomes; the other 61% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Arda score at least twice in 50%; Septemvri Sofia in 20%.
Scoreline distribution
Septemvri Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 11.0 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.9 | 11.6 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Arda goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| Market reference | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| Metis Forecast | 60% | 23% | 17% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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No recent results.
Septemvri Sofia
| 19 Sept | H | vs Botev Plovdiv | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.