Arda vs Levski Sofia — Bulgarian First League forecast, Tuesday, 27 October 2026
Bulgarian First League·Tuesday, 27 October 2026·17:30
Arda
vs
17:30
Levski Sofia
ArdaExpected goalsLevski Sofia
0.85 xG1.62 xG
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Arda
17%
Draw
26%
Levski Sofia
57%
Expected goals
0.85–1.62
Arda · Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia win 57% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–1 (14.3%), 1–1 (12.3%), 0–2 (11.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 38% of outcomes; the other 62% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Arda score at least twice in 21%; Levski Sofia in 49%.
Scoreline distribution
Levski Sofia goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 14.3 | 11.3 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.3 | 12.3 | 10.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 4.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Arda goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Both teams score48%
Over 1.5 goals71%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals23%
Over 4.5 goals10%
Team scoring & clean sheets
Arda clean sheet18%
Levski Sofia clean sheet43%
Arda score 2+21%
Levski Sofia score 2+49%
Arda score 3+6%
Levski Sofia score 3+21%
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 24% | 28% | 48% |
| Market reference | 17% | 26% | 57% |
| Metis Forecast | 17% | 26% | 57% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
0–114.3%
1–112.3%
0–211.3%
1–210.9%
0–09.0%
0–35.5%
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Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.