Arda Kardzhali vs Cherno More Varna — Bulgarian First League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Arda Kardzhali
1 – 1
Cherno More Varna
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 36.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Arda Kardzhali
56%
top pick
Draw
27%
result
Cherno More Varna
17%
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 26.6% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Arda Kardzhali win. Expected goals 1.63–0.85 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.8%), 1–1 (12.5%), 2–0 (11.1%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Arda Kardzhali
| 19 Sept | H | vs Cherno More Varna | 1–1 | D |
Cherno More Varna
| 19 Sept | A | vs Arda Kardzhali | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.