Westerlo vs Waregem — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Westerlo
31%
Draw
25%
result
Waregem
44%
top pick
Final score
2–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 25.3% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Waregem win. Expected goals 1.35–1.46 against 2–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.0%), 1–2 (11.3%), 0–1 (10.0%). It finished 2–2.
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Westerlo
| 8 Aug | H | vs St. Gilloise | 1–5 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genk | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Waregem | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Mechelen | 4–0 | W |
Waregem
| 9 Aug | H | vs Genk | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs St. Gilloise | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Westerlo | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kortrijk | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Westerlo (Home · 3 matches) | Waregem (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.33 | 2.25 |
Home stats use Westerlo's home record; away stats use Waregem's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.