🇧🇪 Belgian Pro League·Sunday, 30 August 2026·17:15
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Westerlo | 2.88 | 2.88 |
| Draw | 3.70 | 3.70 |
| Waregem | 2.31 | 2.31 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketWesterlo
33%
Draw
25%
Waregem
42%
Westerlo 1.36 xGexpected goals1.35 xG Waregem
Waregem win 42% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (12.1%).
Westerlo score at least twice in 38%; Waregem in 40%.
1–1 12.1%1–2 11.2%0–1 10.8%0–0 7.2%0–2 6.4%1–0 6.2%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 12.1 | 11.2 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Westerlo goals · columns = Waregem goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score55%
Over 1.5 goals76%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Over 3.5 goals28%
Over 4.5 goals14%
Westerlo clean sheet25%
Waregem clean sheet27%
Westerlo score 2+38%
Waregem score 2+40%
Westerlo score 3+17%
Model vs market
| Source | Westerlo | Draw | Waregem |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 33% | 25% | 42% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Recent form
Westerlo
| 27 Jul | A | vs Anderlecht | 2–5 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Waregem | 3–1 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | vs Cercle Brugge | 1–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Antwerp | 2–0 | W |
Waregem
| 26 Jul | H | vs Mechelen | 1–1 | D |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Westerlo | 1–3 | L |
| 10 Aug | A | vs Anderlecht | 3–2 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Club Brugge | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs St Truiden | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
| 31 Jan 26 | WaregemvsWesterlo | 0 – 1 |
| 2 Aug 25 | WesterlovsWaregem | 3 – 1 |
Westerlo: 2W 0D 0L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Westerlo (Home) | Waregem (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 45.0% | 72.2% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 61.1% |
| Clean sheet | 30.0% | 16.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.65 | 3.17 |
Home stats use Westerlo's home record; away stats use Waregem's away record this season.