Westerlo vs Charleroi — Belgian Pro League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Westerlo
32%
Draw
26%
Charleroi
42%
Expected goals
1.49–1.59
Westerlo · Charleroi
Charleroi win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 1–2 (10.2%), 0–1 (7.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Westerlo score at least twice in 43%; Charleroi in 48%.
Scoreline distribution
Charleroi goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.4 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Westerlo goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Market reference | 32% | 26% | 42% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 26% | 42% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Westerlo | 2.96 |
| Draw | 3.65 |
| Charleroi | 2.29 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Westerlo
| 8 Aug | H | vs St. Gilloise | 1–5 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genk | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Waregem | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Mechelen | 4–0 | W |
Charleroi
| 9 Aug | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Westerlo (Home · 5 matches) | Charleroi (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 6.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Westerlo's home record; away stats use Charleroi's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.