Waregem vs Club Brugge — Belgian Pro League forecast, Friday, 30 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Waregem
17%
Draw
20%
Club Brugge
63%
Expected goals
1.01–2.18
Waregem · Club Brugge
Club Brugge win 63% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (9.8%), 1–2 (9.4%), 1–1 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Waregem score at least twice in 27%; Club Brugge in 64%.
Scoreline distribution
Club Brugge goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 8.0 | 9.8 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 2.7 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Waregem goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 13% | 20% | 67% |
| Market reference | 17% | 20% | 63% |
| Metis Forecast | 17% | 20% | 63% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Waregem | 5.29 |
| Draw | 4.63 |
| Club Brugge | 1.53 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Waregem
| 9 Aug | H | vs Genk | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs St. Gilloise | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Westerlo | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kortrijk | 2–0 | W |
Club Brugge
| 7 Aug | H | vs Kortrijk | 3–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–0 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Cercle Brugge | 1–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Gent | 1–2 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Lommel SK | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Waregem (Home · 4 matches) | Club Brugge (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Waregem's home record; away stats use Club Brugge's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.