Waregem vs Charleroi — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 13 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 32.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Waregem
37%
top pick
Draw
27%
Charleroi
36%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Charleroi win 35.8% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Waregem win. Expected goals 1.35–1.38 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 2–1 (9.1%), 1–0 (8.6%). It finished 0–1.
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Waregem
| 9 Aug | H | vs Genk | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs St. Gilloise | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Westerlo | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kortrijk | 2–0 | W |
Charleroi
| 9 Aug | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Kortrijk | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 2–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Waregem (Home · 5 matches) | Charleroi (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.20 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Waregem's home record; away stats use Charleroi's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.