Waasland-Beveren vs Gent — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 22 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Waasland-Beveren
25%
Draw
26%
Gent
50%
Expected goals
1.16–1.66
Waasland-Beveren · Gent
Gent win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.1%), 1–2 (10.3%), 0–1 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Gent win is 1–2 (10.3%).
Waasland-Beveren score at least twice in 32%; Gent in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Gent goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.6 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 12.1 | 10.3 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Waasland-Beveren goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 29% | 27% | 44% |
| Market reference | 25% | 26% | 50% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 26% | 50% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Recent form
No recent results.
Gent
| 3 Sept | H | vs OH Leuven | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | H | vs Mechelen | 2–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Club Brugge | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Oud-Heverlee Leuven | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Waasland-Beveren (Home · no matches) | Gent (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 2.40 |
Home stats use Waasland-Beveren's home record; away stats use Gent's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.