Union SG vs Genk — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Union SG
60%
Draw
22%
Genk
18%
Expected goals
1.83–1.13
Union SG · Genk
Union SG win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (14.4%), 1–0 (11.7%), 1–1 (10.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 36% of outcomes; the other 64% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Union SG score at least twice in 58%; Genk in 30%.
Scoreline distribution
Genk goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 14.4 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Union SG goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 33% | 26% | 41% |
| Market reference | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Union SG | 1.60 |
| Draw | 4.30 |
| Genk | 5.11 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Union SG
| 2 Sept | A | vs St Truiden | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Anderlecht | 3–0 | W |
Genk
| 9 Aug | A | vs Waregem | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Westerlo | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–4 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Anderlecht | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Union SG (Home · no matches) | Genk (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.50 |
Home stats use Union SG's home record; away stats use Genk's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.