Union SG vs Cercle Brugge — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
Union SG
44%
Draw
26%
Cercle Brugge
30%
Expected goals
1.61–1.31
Union SG · Cercle Brugge
Union SG win 44% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.3%), 2–1 (9.2%), 1–0 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Union SG win is 2–1 (9.2%).
Union SG score at least twice in 48%; Cercle Brugge in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Cercle Brugge goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Union SG goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Union SG | 1.30 |
| Draw | 5.86 |
| Cercle Brugge | 8.43 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 2.12–0.93 → 1.61–1.31
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Union SG
| 2 Sept | A | vs St Truiden | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Anderlecht | 3–0 | W |
Cercle Brugge
| 8 Aug | A | vs Standard Liege | 2–2 | D |
| 14 Aug | H | vs St Truiden | 3–3 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Club Brugge | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Lommel SK | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Gent | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Union SG (Home · no matches) | Cercle Brugge (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 3.00 |
Home stats use Union SG's home record; away stats use Cercle Brugge's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.