🇧🇪 Belgian Pro League·Sunday, 30 August 2026·16:30

Union SG

16:30

— vs 6th

LDDWL

Odds comparison

Market	Pinnacle	Best
Union SG	1.70	1.70
Draw	3.85	3.85
Anderlecht	4.82	4.82

Metis Forecast

model + market

Union SG

57%

Draw

24%

Anderlecht

19%

Union SG 1.75 xGexpected goals1.05 xG Anderlecht

Union SG win 57% of the current Metis Forecast.

Both teams score in 56% of simulations.

The most likely scoreline is 2–1 (12.1%).

Union SG score at least twice in 54%; Anderlecht in 28%.

2–1 12.1%1–1 11.5%1–0 11.4%2–0 9.6%0–0 6.5%3–1 6.1%

Scoreline distribution

	0	1	2	3	4	5+
0	6.5	4.3	3.1	1.3	0.4	0.1
1	11.4	11.5	4.7	2.0	0.6	0.2
2	9.6	12.1	5.1	1.5	0.5	0.1
3	4.8	6.1	3.8	1.1	0.2	0.1
4	1.8	2.3	1.4	0.6	0.1	0.0
5+	0.7	0.9	0.6	0.2	0.1	0.0

rows = Union SG goals · columns = Anderlecht goals · % of simulations

Match outcomes

Both teams score56%

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Over 4.5 goals15%

Union SG clean sheet35%

Anderlecht clean sheet16%

Union SG score 2+54%

Anderlecht score 2+28%

Union SG score 3+25%

Model vs market

Source	Union SG	Draw	Anderlecht
Raw Metis model	42%	27%	31%
Market (de-vigged)	57%	24%	19%
Metis Forecast	57%	24%	19%

The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.

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Recent form

No recent results.

Anderlecht

27 Jul	H	vs Westerlo	5–2	W
3 Aug	A	vs Cercle Brugge	2–0	W
10 Aug	H	vs Waregem	2–3	L
17 Aug	A	vs Dender	2–0	W
31 Aug	A	vs St. Gilloise	0–2	L

Head to head

No previous meetings found.

Model context

Stat	Union SG (Home)	Anderlecht (Away)
BTTS rate	—	50.0%
Over 2.5 rate	—	45.0%
Clean sheet	—	15.0%
Avg goals	—	3.10

Home stats use Union SG's home record; away stats use Anderlecht's away record this season.

Anderlecht →🇧🇪 Belgian Pro League standings & fixtures