Union SG vs Anderlecht — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 30 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Union SG
56%
pick · result
Draw
25%
Anderlecht
19%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Union SG win 56.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Union SG win. Expected goals 1.74–1.06 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–1 (12.1%), 1–1 (11.7%), 1–0 (11.4%). It finished 3–0.
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Union SG
| 2 Sept | A | vs St Truiden | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Anderlecht | 3–0 | W |
Anderlecht
| 30 Aug | A | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 9 Aug | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Beveren | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
| 3 Sept | H | vs Kortrijk | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Union SG (Home · no matches) | Anderlecht (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | — | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | — | 1.67 |
Home stats use Union SG's home record; away stats use Anderlecht's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.