St Truiden vs Westerlo — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St Truiden
56%
Draw
24%
Westerlo
20%
Expected goals
1.87–1.12
St Truiden · Westerlo
St Truiden win 56% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.2%), 2–1 (11.2%), 1–0 (9.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 59% of simulations.
Those three cover 32% of outcomes; the other 68% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St Truiden win is 2–1 (11.2%).
St Truiden score at least twice in 57%; Westerlo in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Westerlo goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: St Truiden goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 48% | 26% | 27% |
| Market reference | 56% | 24% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 56% | 24% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St Truiden | 1.73 | 1.65 | 1.67 | 1.72 | 1.75 | 1.60 | 1.67 | 1.68 | 1.66 | 1.75 Betano |
| Draw | 3.95 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 3.92 | 4.25 | 4.20 | 4.10 | 3.82 | 3.67 | 4.25 Betano |
| Westerlo | 4.74 | 4.33 | 4.33 | 4.72 | 4.55 | 4.20 | 4.10 | 4.60 | 3.67 | 4.74 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
St Truiden
| 8 Aug | H | vs Lommel SK | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Cercle Brugge | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs RAAL La Louviere | 4–0 | W |
Westerlo
| 8 Aug | H | vs St. Gilloise | 1–5 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genk | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Waregem | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Mechelen | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Truiden (Home · 4 matches) | Westerlo (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 3.75 |
Home stats use St Truiden's home record; away stats use Westerlo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.