St Truiden vs Westerlo — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 5.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
St Truiden
56%
top pick
Draw
24%
Westerlo
20%
result
Final score
0–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Westerlo win 19.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a St Truiden win. Expected goals 1.89–1.14 against 0–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.2%), 2–1 (11.2%), 1–0 (9.2%). It finished 0–2.
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St Truiden
| 2 Sept | H | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Lommel SK | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Cercle Brugge | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
Westerlo
| 8 Aug | H | vs St. Gilloise | 1–5 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genk | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Waregem | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Mechelen | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Truiden (Home · 5 matches) | Westerlo (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 4.00 |
Home stats use St Truiden's home record; away stats use Westerlo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.