St Truiden vs Waregem — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St Truiden
54%
Draw
23%
Waregem
23%
Expected goals
1.95–1.19
St Truiden · Waregem
St Truiden win 54% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.7%), 2–1 (9.6%), 2–0 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 60% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St Truiden win is 2–1 (9.6%).
St Truiden score at least twice in 58%; Waregem in 33%.
Scoreline distribution
Waregem goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.7 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.6 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: St Truiden goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 57% | 23% | 20% |
| Market reference | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| Metis Forecast | 54% | 23% | 23% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St Truiden | 1.79 |
| Draw | 4.02 |
| Waregem | 4.14 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
St Truiden
| 2 Sept | H | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Lommel SK | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Cercle Brugge | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
Waregem
| 9 Aug | H | vs Genk | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | A | vs St. Gilloise | 0–0 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Westerlo | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Kortrijk | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Truiden (Home · 4 matches) | Waregem (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | 2.40 |
Home stats use St Truiden's home record; away stats use Waregem's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.