St Truiden vs Union SG — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Wednesday, 2 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
St Truiden
24%
Draw
26%
Union SG
50%
pick · result
Final score
0–3
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Union SG win 50.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Union SG win. Expected goals 1.24–1.59 against 0–3 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (12.8%), 1–1 (12.2%), 0–1 (11.0%). It finished 0–3.
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St Truiden
| 2 Sept | H | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Lommel SK | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Cercle Brugge | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
Union SG
| 2 Sept | A | vs St Truiden | 3–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Anderlecht | 3–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Truiden (Home · 4 matches) | Union SG (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | — |
Home stats use St Truiden's home record; away stats use Union SG's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.