St Truiden vs OH Leuven — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St Truiden
60%
Draw
22%
OH Leuven
18%
Expected goals
1.97–1.07
St Truiden · OH Leuven
St Truiden win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (11.2%), 1–1 (10.3%), 2–0 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
St Truiden score at least twice in 59%; OH Leuven in 29%.
Scoreline distribution
OH Leuven goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 11.2 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 1.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: St Truiden goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 54% | 25% | 22% |
| Market reference | 60% | 22% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 60% | 22% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| St Truiden | 1.61 |
| Draw | 4.24 |
| OH Leuven | 5.00 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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St Truiden
| 2 Sept | H | vs Union SG | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Lommel SK | 1–1 | D |
| 14 Aug | A | vs Cercle Brugge | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–1 | W |
| 2 Sept | H | vs St. Gilloise | 0–3 | L |
OH Leuven
| 3 Sept | A | vs Gent | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St Truiden (Home · 4 matches) | OH Leuven (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 2.75 | — |
Home stats use St Truiden's home record; away stats use OH Leuven's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.