St. Gilloise vs Genk — Belgian Pro League forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
St. Gilloise
61%
Draw
22%
Genk
18%
Expected goals
2.10–1.03
St. Gilloise · Genk
St. Gilloise win 61% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.1%), 2–0 (9.6%), 2–1 (9.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 57% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely St. Gilloise win is 2–0 (9.6%).
St. Gilloise score at least twice in 62%; Genk in 28%.
Scoreline distribution
Genk goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 10.1 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: St. Gilloise goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 65% | 21% | 14% |
| Market reference | 61% | 22% | 18% |
| Metis Forecast | 61% | 22% | 18% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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St. Gilloise
| 8 Aug | A | vs Westerlo | 5–1 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Waregem | 0–0 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Anderlecht | 3–0 | W |
| 2 Sept | A | vs St Truiden | 3–0 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Charleroi | 3–2 | W |
Genk
| 9 Aug | A | vs Waregem | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Westerlo | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–4 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Anderlecht | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | St. Gilloise (Home · 5 matches) | Genk (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 3.00 |
Home stats use St. Gilloise's home record; away stats use Genk's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.