Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Mechelen — Belgian Pro League forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Oud-Heverlee Leuven
42%
Draw
26%
Mechelen
31%
Expected goals
1.53–1.32
Oud-Heverlee Leuven · Mechelen
Oud-Heverlee Leuven win 42% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.4%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–0 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 30% of outcomes; the other 70% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Oud-Heverlee Leuven win is 2–1 (9.4%).
Oud-Heverlee Leuven score at least twice in 46%; Mechelen in 38%.
Scoreline distribution
Mechelen goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.4 | 7.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Oud-Heverlee Leuven goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 27% | 34% |
| Market reference | 42% | 26% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 42% | 26% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Oud-Heverlee Leuven
| 9 Aug | A | vs Charleroi | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Club Brugge | 0–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Standard Liege | 1–2 | L |
| 3 Sept | A | vs Gent | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Beveren | 0–3 | L |
Mechelen
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gent | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Standard Liege | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Charleroi | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Westerlo | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Oud-Heverlee Leuven (Home · 5 matches) | Mechelen (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.40 |
Home stats use Oud-Heverlee Leuven's home record; away stats use Mechelen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.