Mechelen vs Westerlo — Belgian Pro League result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 5 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.3 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Mechelen
48%
top pick
Draw
26%
Westerlo
26%
result
Final score
0–4
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Westerlo win 26.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Mechelen win. Expected goals 1.66–1.27 against 0–4 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.2%), 2–1 (10.8%), 1–0 (8.9%). It finished 0–4.
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Mechelen
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gent | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Standard Liege | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Charleroi | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Westerlo | 0–4 | L |
Westerlo
| 8 Aug | H | vs St. Gilloise | 1–5 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Genk | 2–3 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Lommel SK | 0–4 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Waregem | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Mechelen | 4–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mechelen (Home · 3 matches) | Westerlo (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 33.3% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.67 | 3.75 |
Home stats use Mechelen's home record; away stats use Westerlo's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.