Mechelen vs Genk — Belgian Pro League forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Mechelen
25%
Draw
25%
Genk
50%
Expected goals
1.25–1.77
Mechelen · Genk
Genk win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 1–2 (10.6%), 0–1 (8.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Genk win is 1–2 (10.6%).
Mechelen score at least twice in 35%; Genk in 54%.
Scoreline distribution
Genk goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.4 | 7.8 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 11.5 | 10.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Mechelen goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 31% | 26% | 43% |
| Market reference | 25% | 25% | 50% |
| Metis Forecast | 25% | 25% | 50% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Mechelen | 3.80 |
| Draw | 3.78 |
| Genk | 1.91 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Mechelen
| 9 Aug | A | vs Gent | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Standard Liege | 3–3 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Charleroi | 0–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs RAAL La Louviere | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Westerlo | 0–4 | L |
Genk
| 9 Aug | A | vs Waregem | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Westerlo | 3–2 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Antwerp | 4–4 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Beveren | 4–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Anderlecht | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Mechelen (Home · 4 matches) | Genk (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.50 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Mechelen's home record; away stats use Genk's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.